Probability distributions of COVID-19 tweet posted trends uses a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Devi Munandar (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia Research Center for Informatics, Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Indonesia)
Sudradjat Supian (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia)
Subiyanto Subiyanto (Department of Marine Sciences, Faculty of Fishery and Marine Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia)

International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
Vol 1, No 4 (2020)

The influence of social media in disseminating information, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, can be observed with time interval, so that the probability of number of tweets discussed by netizens on social media can be observed. The nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a Poisson process with dependent on time parameters and the exponential distribution having unequal parameter values and, independently of each other. The probability of no accurence an event in the initial state is one and the probability of an event in initial state is zero. Using of non-homogeneous Poisson in this paper aims to predict and count the number of tweet posts with the keyword coronavirus, COVID-19 with set time intervals every day. Posting of tweets from one time each day to the next do not affect each other and the number of tweets is not the same. The dataset used in this study is crawling of COVID-19 tweets three times a day with duration of 20 minutes each crawled for 13 days or 39 time intervals. Result of this study obtained predictions and calculated for the probability of the number of tweets for the tendency of netizens to post on the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic.