The Probability of Flare Occurrences Based on Sunspot Group and Magnetic Configurations

Dhani Herdiwijaya ( Astronomy Research Group and Bosscha Observatory, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, ITB)
Sherly Imelda ( Planetarium Jagad Raya, Tenggarong, East Kalimantan)

Jurnal Matematika & Sains
Vol 11, No 2 (2006)

We study the probability of flare occurrences observed in Hα and X-ray based on the classification and evolution of sunspot group and the magnetic structure within period 1994 to 2001. We found that there was a strong correlation between flare occurrences with the morphology and configuration of sunspot group and the magnetic structure. We also found that simple sunspot groups move more slowly before flare event, whereas complex groups move faster. On the other hand we did not find correlation between maximum area of sunspot group and the intensity of solar flare.