Pemodelan Cellular Automata Markov Chain untuk Memprediksi Daya Dukung Kota Ambon

Melianus Salakory (Education Study Program, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Universitas Pattimura, 97233, Indonesia)
Heinrich Rakuasa (Department of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, 10430, Indonesia)

Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management)
Vol 12 No 2 (2022): Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (JPSL)

Ambon is a city with the highest economic and population growth in Maluku Province, which makes built-up land have high and rapid growth so that it can reduce the carrying capacity of the city's land. This can lead to an imbalance between population and available housing and may result in higher population pressure on available areas. Prediction of spatial modeling is needed as a preventive measure to prevent excessive land cover changes in the future. This study aims to analyze the carrying capacity of residential areas and spatial modeling of land cover changes in Ambon City in 2010, 2015, and 2020 using Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMC) and identify settlement patterns based on population density in 2031 in Ambon city. The results of the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMC) analysis show that the residential area in 2031 has increased to 7,910.03 ha and the development of residential areas in 2031 in Ambon City is centered on Sirimau District.