Parameter: Journal of Statistics
Vol. 2 No. 2 (2022)

Comparison of Cochrane-Orcutt and Hildreth-Lu Methods to Overcome Autocorrelation in Time Series Regression (Case Study of Gorontalo Province HDI 2010-2021)

Khusnudin Tri Subhi (Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Sigi)
Azka Al Azkiya (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jun 2022

Abstract

Time series data is data that is prone to autocorrelation. Autocorrelation is a violation of assumptions in Ordinary Least Square regression. The presence of autocorrelation can make parameter estimates, not BLUE (Best, Linear, Unbiased Estimator). Several methods to overcome autocorrelation include Cochrane-Orcutt and Hildreth-Lu methods. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the Cochrane-Orcutt and Hildreth-Lu methods to deal with autocorrelation in the time series regression of the Gorontalo Human Development Index case in 2010 2021. We used HDI data for Gorontalo Province from 2010-to 2021, taken from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia Gorontalo Province. The method we used was Cochrane-Orcutt and Hildreth-Lu in the case of regression using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) parameter estimation. The results obtained are that the Cochrane-Orcutt and Hildreth-Lu could overcome autocorrelation. The results of the Durbin Watson test after using both methods show no autocorrelation. However, the Hildreth-Lu method resulted in a lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.147 compared to the RMSE of the OLS model of 0.165 and the RMSE of the Cochrane-Orcutt model of 0.196. Therefore, the Hildreth-Lu method was the best method to overcame autocorrelation in this case.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

parameter

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics

Description

Parameter: Journal of Statistics is a refereed journal committed to original research articles, reviews and short communications of Statistics and its ...