JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization
Vol 6, No 3 (2022)

Predicting Dengue Outbreak based on Meteorological Data Using Artificial Neural Network and Decision Tree Models

Muhamad Krishnan, Nor Farisha (Unknown)
Zukarnain, Zuriani Ahmad (Unknown)
Ahmad, Azlin (Unknown)
Jamaludin, Marhainis (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Sep 2022

Abstract

Dengue fever is well-known as a potentially fatal disease, and the number of cases in some areas remains uncontrolled. Despite efforts to prevent the dengue outbreak from spreading further, vectors may be to blame. Identifying what weather characteristics contribute to dengue outbreaks is important to predict the dengue outbreak. This study proposes Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree (DT) models based on maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total rainfall, and average humidity to predict the dengue outbreak in Kota Bharu. Different numbers of hidden nodes were used in ANN to optimize the model. Both models, ANN and DT are evaluated based on accuracy, sensitivity and specificity showing that ANN (Accuracy = 68.85%, Sensitivity = 99.71%, Specificity = 1.27%), performed better than DT (Accuracy = 67.46%, Sensitivity = 98.82%, Specificity = 2.53%). This means that ANN outperforms DT when predicting a dengue outbreak in Kota Bharu. Based on the ANN model, it can be concluded that the number of hidden nodes affects the model's accuracy. Selecting the ideal number of hidden nodes for modeling the ANN model is appropriate. Even though ANN accuracy for prediction models is greater than DT, it is still low. It can be inferred that selecting a prediction model appropriate for a variety of dataset types and levels of complexity is important. Based on these models, the government may take pre-emptive actions to enhance public awareness about climate change.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

joiv

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization is an international peer-reviewed journal dedicated to interchange for the results of high quality research in all aspect of Computer Science, Computer Engineering, Information Technology and Visualization. The journal publishes state-of-art ...