Jurnal Serambi Engineering
Vol 6, No 1: Januari 2021

Peningkatan Akurasi pada Prediksi Beban Listrik Menggunakan Metode Moving Average

Erliza Yuniarti (Electrical Engineering Department, Universitas Muhammadiyah, Palembang)
Wardiman Wardiman (Electrical Engineering Department, Universitas Muhammadiyah, Palembang)
Wirangga Wirangga (Unknown)
Bengawan Alfarezi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
07 Jan 2021

Abstract

This paper discusses improving the accuracy of electrical load forecasting by imputation on empty load data. It is important to estimate the demand for electricity loads for the power plant operating system, fuel supply and maintenance of the power system. The forecast of the electrical load is carried out on the basis of the historical data of electrical load which is generally represented in the load curve. The load curves in research at the Singkarak substation Borang show that there are several load patterns, some missing data and data that is suddenly increasing. The percentage of blank data in 2015 was 1.8379%, while   the highest  in September at was 0.5137% or 45 hours. To fill in the missing data, three imputation techniques were used,   i.e., filling in the data from the previous day's data at the same time ; perform regression analysis on the month  the data was missing; and using the mean values from  monthly data. The results of forecast using the moving average method provide a forecast of the  electrical load on January 1, 2016 wll be 138 kW. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the best load forecast is 9.59, using a data set equipped with the imputation of the mean.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jse

Publisher

Subject

Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Engineering Environmental Science

Description

Jurnal Serambi Engineering diterbitkan oleh Fakultas Teknik Universitas Serambi Mekkah Banda Aceh. Jurnal ini diterbitkan sebagai media untuk menyalurkan informasi hasil penelitian dibidang keteknikan baik yang dilakukan oleh para dosen dari Fakultas Teknik, khususnya dari Universitas Serambi Mekkah ...