Nowcasting the Transportation and Accommodation Sectors Growth using the Google Trends Index

Dhiar Niken Larasati (Dir of Statistical Analysis and Development, Statistics Indonesia, Jl. Dr. Sutomo 6-8 Jakarta 10710 Indonesia)
Nucke Widowati Kusumo Projo (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jl. Otto Iskandardinata No. 64 C, Jakarta Timur 13330)

EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis
VOLUME 4, ISSUE 1, February 2023

This research aims to assess the possibility of the daily and weekly Google Trends Index (GTI) to predict the quarterly GDP growth. The U-MIDAS approach is utilized because it allows using of daily and weekly basis data to forecast quarterly indicators without aggregating them onto a quarterly basis hence it does not eliminate useful information on the daily and weekly data. This research uses quarterly GDP for the transportation sector and the accommodation and restaurant sector which are considered potential industries for the future of Indonesia's economy. The result shows that the daily basis GTI can effectively predict the quarterly GDP growth better than the weekly basis GTI based on the RSE scores.