International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Vol 13, No 4: August 2023

Susceptible exposed infectious recovered-machine learning for COVID-19 prediction in Saudi Arabia

Mutasem K. Alsmadi (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Ghaith M. Jaradat (Amman Arab University)
Sami A. Abahussain (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Mohammed Fahed Tayfour (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Usama A. Badawi (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Hayat Alfagham (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Muneerah Ebrahem Alshabanah (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Daniah Abdulrahman Alrajhi (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Hanouf Naif ALkhaldi (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Njoud Ahmad Altuwaijri (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Hany Answer ShoShan (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Hayah Mohamed Abouelnaga (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)
Ahmed Baz Mohamed Metwally (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Aug 2023

Abstract

Susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) is among the epidemiological models used in forecasting the spread of disease in large populations. SEIR is a fitting model for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread prediction. Somehow, in its original form, SEIR could not measure the impact of lockdowns. So, in the SEIR equations system utilized in this study, a variable was included to evaluate the impact of varying levels of social distance on the transmission of COVID-19. Additionally, we applied artificial intelligence utilizing the deep neural network machine learning (ML) technique. On the initial spread data for Saudi Arabia that were available up to June 25th, 2021, this improved SEIR model was used. The study shows possible infection to around 3.1 million persons without lockdown in Saudi Arabia at the peak of spread, which lasts for about 3 months beginning from the lockdown date (March 21st). On the other hand, the Kingdom's current partial lockdown policy was estimated to cut the estimated number of infections to 0.5 million over nine months. The data shows that stricter lockdowns may successfully flatten the COVID-19 graph curve in Saudi Arabia. We successfully predicted the COVID-19 epidemic's peaks and sizes using our modified deep neural network (DNN) and SEIR model.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJECE

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE, ISSN: 2088-8708, a SCOPUS indexed Journal, SNIP: 1.001; SJR: 0.296; CiteScore: 0.99; SJR & CiteScore Q2 on both of the Electrical & Electronics Engineering, and Computer Science) is the official publication of the Institute of ...