Xplore: Journal of Statistics
Vol. 8 No. 1 (2019): 30 April 2019

Dekomposisi Ensemble untuk Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah DKI Jakarta

Febie Tri Lestari (Department Of statistics, IPB)
Farit Mochamad Afendi (Department Of statistics, IPB)
Mohammad Masjkur (Department Of statistics, IPB)
Budi Waryanto (Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian, Kementerian Pertanian RI)



Article Info

Publish Date
06 Apr 2019

Abstract

Onions are one of the vegetable commodities that are not distributed and included as seasonal crops. Onions are commonly used as cooking spices and traditional medicine. At the time of the religious holidays or non-harvest season, the stock of onions is not able to meet the demand, hence the government has to import them, but that increase the fluctuations of onion prices on the market. Actually, by utilizing the price fluctuation, information about the factors, will be obtained by reviewing the price movement and precise forecasting of the price of onions. Ensamble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method can be applied to examine that. EEMD is a decomposition method that can be used to convert a series of time functions from a data signal into several sub-signals resulting from flattening, otherwise known as Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) and IMF remaining. In this research, this concept applied to data on weekly onion prices in DKI Jakarta from July 2008 to April 2018 as many as 521 data. Based on the results of data processing, as many as 7 IMF and IMF remaining were used as IMF forecasting and the IMF remaining in the future. The forecast was performed by choosing the best model of each IMF component and IMF remaining, used ARIMA. In the end, the weekly price forecast for onion in Jakarta from May - July 2018 ranged from Rp34295.67, - to Rp36133.36, - with average forecasting prices for May-July 2018 amounting to Rp34482.39 - Rp 35207.12 and Rp 36024.88 with a MAPE value of 1.85%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

xplore

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Mathematics

Description

Xplore: Journal of Statistics diterbitkan berkala 3 (tiga) kali dalam setahun yang memuat tulisan ilmiah yang berhubungan dengan bidang statistika. Artikel yang dimuat berupa hasil penelitian atau kajian pustaka dalam bidang statistika dan atau penerapannya. ISSN: 2302-5751 Mulai Desember 2018, ...