Xplore: Journal of Statistics
Vol. 7 No. 3 (2018): 31 Desember 2018

Model Fungsi Transfer Input Ganda untuk Pemodelan Jakarta Islamic Index

Nur Laela Fitriani (Department of Statistics, IPB)
Pika Silvianti (Department of Statistics, IPB)
Rahma Anisa (Department of Statistics, IPB)



Article Info

Publish Date
02 Jan 2019

Abstract

Transfer function model with multiple input is a multivariate time series forecasting model that combines several characteristics of ARIMA models by utilizing some regression analysis properties. This model is used to determine the effect of output series towards input series so that the model can be used to analyze the factors that affect the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The USD exchange rate against rupiah and Dow Jones Index (DJI) were used as input series. The transfer function model was constructed through several stages: model identification stage, estimation of transfer function model, and model diagnostic test. Based on the transfer function model, the JII was influenced by JII at the period of one and two days before. JII was also affected by the USD exchange rate against rupiah at the same period and at one and two days before. In addition, the JII was influenced by DJI at the same period and also at period of one until five days ago. The Mean Absolute Prencentage Error (MAPE) value of forecasting result was 0.70% and the correlation between actual and forecast data was 0.77. This shows that the model was well performed for forecasting JII.

Copyrights © 2018






Journal Info

Abbrev

xplore

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Mathematics

Description

Xplore: Journal of Statistics diterbitkan berkala 3 (tiga) kali dalam setahun yang memuat tulisan ilmiah yang berhubungan dengan bidang statistika. Artikel yang dimuat berupa hasil penelitian atau kajian pustaka dalam bidang statistika dan atau penerapannya. ISSN: 2302-5751 Mulai Desember 2018, ...