SAINSMAT: Journal of Applied Sciences, Mathematics, and Its Education
Vol. 12 No. 1 (2023)

Forecasting Climate Variability in Nepal

Raghu Bir Bista (Department of Economics, PMC, Tribhuvan University, Nepal)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Mar 2023

Abstract

Climate variability is noted a critical issue in Nepal. This paper investigates empirically and analytically whether climate variability exists or not in different altitudes, whether its direction moves and what will be its future direction. In this study, we used a time series forecasting model based on the secondary data of hydrology and metrology collected from the Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the Government of Nepal. As a result, this paper found climate variability in the different parts of Nepal where variations of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall precipitation) are found all months of the year. In the estimation, on average temperature rising per annum is by 20 C from 1975 to 2012. However, declining rainfall per annum was noticed. Additionally, the estimated forecasting of temperature variation over the next 40 years would be 60c over. In the case of rainfall forecast, it would be constant and results from drought at high altitude and flood at low altitude. Therefore, climate variability may be a big threat in the next 40 years across the country, of Nepal. The result may be valuable input to the policymakers and farmers for economics as usual.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

sainsmat

Publisher

Subject

Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Immunology & microbiology Mathematics Physics

Description

SAINSMAT: Journal of Applied Sciences, Mathematics, and Its Education is journal of Applied Sciences and Mathematics research and innovation, also consider multidisciplinary research and innovation in related field. It is an open-access journal that publishes research outcomes with significant ...