IJoICT (International Journal on Information and Communication Technology)
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2023): June 2023

Portfolio Optimization Based on Return Prediction and Semi Absolute Deviation (SAD)

Gharyni Nurkhair Mulyono (School of Computing, Telkom University, Indonesia)
Deni Saepudin (Telkom University)
Aniq Atiqi Rohmawati (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Jun 2023

Abstract

A portfolio is a collection of investment financial assets managed by financial institutions or individuals. In investment activities, investors expect minimal loss risk and optimal stock portfolio weight to get maximum profit. Investors can monitor changes in stock index values to compare portfolio performance. This research has discussed how to build a portfolio based on stock datasets with the LQ45 index using return predictions from the artificial neural network (ANN) method with semi-absolute deviation (SAD). Furthermore, the portfolio is optimized by looking for weights that match it. After that, a comparison of portfolio performance was carried out using the Sharpe ratio (SR) method between the semi-absolute deviation (SAD) portfolio and the portfolio resulting from the formation of the equal weight (EW) portfolio. Portfolio performance with ANN prediction and SAD is better than equal-weight portfolios in terms of mean return, standard deviation, and sharpe ratio for portfolios with few stocks, namely 2 and 3 stocks. In addition, a portfolio with a higher number of stocks can make the portfolio value from the ANN close prediction algorithm process and the selection of weights based on SAD is better than portfolios with equal weight for each list of stocks in the portfolio.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijoict

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

International Journal on Information and Communication Technology (IJoICT) is a peer-reviewed journal in the field of computing that published twice a year; scheduled in December and ...