Journal of Soft Computing Exploration
Vol. 4 No. 2 (2023): June 2023

Crude oil price prediction using Artificial Neural Network-Backpropagation (ANN-BP) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) methods

Purwinarko, Aji (Unknown)
Amalia Langgundi, Fitri (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
07 Jun 2023

Abstract

Crude oil price fluctuations significantly affect commodity market price fluctuations, so a sudden drop in oil prices will cause a slowdown in the economy and other commodities. This is very important for Indonesia, one of the world's oil-producing countries, to gain multiple benefits from oil exports when world oil prices increase and increase economic growth. Therefore, a system is needed to predict world crude oil prices. In this case, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied as the optimization of the weight parameters in the Artificial Neural Network-Backpropagation (ANN-BP) method. We compared the ANN-BP–PSO and ANN-BP methods to obtain the method with the best causation value based on the MAPE and MSE results. PSO aims to find the best weight value by iterating the process of finding and increasing position, speed, Pbest, and Gbest until the iteration is complete. The results showed that the ANN-BP-PSO process was classified as very good and had a lower predictive error rate than the ANN-BP method based on the MAPE and MSE values, which is 5.02007% and 7.15827% compared to 6.28323% and 13.86345.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

joscex

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Journal of Soft Computing Exploration is a journal that publishes manuscripts of scientific research papers related to soft computing. The scope of research can be from the theory and scientific applications as well as the novelty of related knowledge insights. Soft Computing: Artificial ...