Annals of Mathematical Modeling
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023)

Parameter estimation of HFMD infection in Malaysia with SIR model

Hanis Nasir (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)
Fuaada Mohd Siam (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jun 2023

Abstract

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a mildly infectious disease that happens to children due to low body immunity against viruses. In this paper, a simple SIR model is employed to represent the dynamics of HFMD in Malaysia. A weekly reported data of HFMD infection from week-1 of 2017 to week-36 of 2018 is used in the mathematical analysis. The procedure of parameter estimation is implemented in order to identify the parameter of the SIR model that fits the model with the reported data. The fminsearchbnd routine is used to minimize the objective function, which is the sum of absolute error minimization. By the Chi-squared test, the estimated parameters are reasonable. Based on the average value of the basic reproduction number R0, HFMD infection will remain to exist in the population under the current condition. Overall, this finding may be useful for public health personnel to reduce disease infection risk by planning more effective prevention strategies.

Copyrights © 2023






Journal Info

Abbrev

amm

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Mathematics

Description

Annals of Mathematical Modeling is a peer-reviewed open-access journal that publishes educational research articles in mathematics education. Every submitted manuscript will be reviewed by at least two peer-reviewers using the double-blind review method. This journal is published ...