Peramalan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Dari Brown

Etri Pujiati (Mahasiswa Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman)
Desi Yuniarti (Dosen Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman)
Rito Goejantoro (Dosen Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman)

Eksponensial
Vol 7 No 1 (2016)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the economic indicator that givethe information about the price of goods andservices which paid by consumer. CPI in Samarinda City increases so long which the pattern of the data is indicating a trend pattern. Time series forecasting designed to handle the trend of data which used a double exponential smoothing method. The purpose of this study is to determine the using of the parameters α and the forecasting amount of CPI in Samarinda City for three months that use double exponential smoothing method. The best parameter α which use to forecast CPI in Samarinda City is (0,61). To forecast CPI in Samarinda City is using double exponential smoothing method obtained F72+m=119,83+1,62 m. The forecasting result of CPI in Samarinda City from January to March 2015 are 121,44, 123,06, and 124,68.