Journal of Actuarial, Finance, and Risk Managment
Vol 1, No 1 (2022)

Forecasting of Retirement Insurance Filled via Internet by ARIMA Models

Lovena Louisa (universitas presiden)
Rifky Fauzi (universitas presiden)
Edwin Setiawan Nugraha (universitas presiden)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Jun 2022

Abstract

Pension fund insurance is critical for everyone because it can guarantee a good life during retirement because retirement is a period when someone no longer gets a steady income. Technological advances make it easier for retirement insurance applications. By using ARIMA Models, we can predict the number of internet users who apply for retirement insurance via the internet, using the monthly data of the Social Security Administration from January 2008 to October 2020. The data used has a steady increasing trend with some seasonal components, so it needs to be removed first. ARIMA models use the assumption that the data is stationary, so the data must be tested using the ADF test command in R. After seeing the plotting of ACF and PACF, 9 ARIMA models are formed. ARIMA model is selected based on the smallest AIC. By using 95% confidence it can be concluded that ARIMA (9,1,9) is the best model for forecasting.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JAFRM

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

Description

This journal aims to provide high quality articles covering any and all aspects of the most recent and significant developments in the actuarial, financial, and risk ...