Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan
Vol. 21 No. 1 (2023): Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia: Error Correction Mechanism Diagnostic

Gabriella Deby Laura (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jakarta)
Rahmania Nur Chasanah (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jakarta)
Nafisatul Faridah (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jakarta)
Fitri Kartiasih (Politeknik Statistika STIS, Jakarta)



Article Info

Publish Date
08 Jul 2023

Abstract

Indonesia's debt is increasing and is not controlled properly, which will result in a fiscal budget deficit. This study aims to determine the condition of fiscal sustainability in Indonesia by looking at the factors that affect the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2012 Quarter I to 2022 Quarter II. Fiscal sustainability can be seen from the debt-to-GDP ratio proxy variable and the independent variables used are the previous quarter's debt ratio, economic growth, inflation, and the exchange rate. This research is a qualitative type with a brief descriptive about the state of the debt ratio and the variables that influence it and quantitatively using the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) using statistical software called EViews. The results show that in the long term the debt-to-GDP ratio in Indonesia is significantly influenced by the previous quarter's debt ratio, economic growth, inflation, and the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the short term, changes in the debt to GDP ratio are significantly influenced by changes in the debt ratio in the previous quarter, changes in economic growth, and changes in inflation.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jep

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan is a peer-reviewed journal that provides a forum for scientific works pertaining to Development Economics. Published twice in a year (June and December). This Journal has p-ISSN 1829-5843, and e-ISSN 2685-0788. This journal was first published since June 2003 by the ...