International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research (IJEBAR)
Vol 5, No 2 (2021): IJEBAR, VOL. 05 ISSUE 02, JUNE 2021

THE FORECASTING OF MONTHLY INFLATION IN MALANG CITY USING AN AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE

Eni Farida (STMIK PPKIA Pradnya Paramita)
Mohamad As'ad (STMIK PPKIA Pradnya Paramita)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Jun 2021

Abstract

Abstract: Malang is known as a student city since there are a lot of schools and universities that can be found in Malang Indonesia. Malang is also an attractive tourist place with many tourist attractions in the city of Malang. Public transportation in the city of Malang is also very varied, ranging from conventional and based online. Access to the city of Malang is varied, namely trains, buses, and planes. Thus economic growth in the city of Malang is getting better, this can be seen from the economic activity in the increasingly crowded city of Malang. A good economy is usually followed by stable inflation. For this reason, it is necessary to examine how the monthly inflation rate in Malang city. This study aims to forecast inflation in the coming periods using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Secondary monthly inflation data is obtained from BPS Malang. From this research, the ARIMA model (2,0,3) is obtained. The accuracy model is used in this research namely root means square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute square error (MASE). The accuracy value is RMSE equal 0.2645467, MAE equal 0.2013898, and MASE equal 0.6047399. Keywords: Monthly inflation forecasting, BPS Malang city, ARIMA model.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJEBAR

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

International Journal of Economics, Business, and Accounting Research (IJEBAR) is a peer-reviewed, open access international scientific journal dedicated for rapid publication of high-quality original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of Economics, Business and Accounting. ...