Economic Development Analysis Journal
Vol 7 No 4 (2018): Economics Development Analysis Journal

Impact of Trump’s Phenomenon, Brexit, & Oil Prices Fluctuation Toward Indonesia’s Economic Growth

Abdul Holik (Pasim National University)



Article Info

Publish Date
14 Dec 2018

Abstract

This paper tries to find impact of global uncertainties toward Indonesia’s economic growth. Several problems which will be discussed in this paper namely: impacts of President Donald Trump’s policies, Brexit, and uncertainty regarding crude oil prices. It conducted from 1st quarter of 2010 until 1st quarter of 2017. The method of analysis used here is VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). We use dummy variable to capture the specific change of economic policies when Brexit and Trump’s emergence appear as the major issues which attract attention around the world. We consider these as the uncertainties which influence global society. Based on the result, there is positive impact of economic policy uncertainty in UK in the long-run. When Brexit was taken into account, in the short-run, it also has positive impact toward Indonesia’s economic growth. Meanwhile economic policy uncertainty in the US generates negative impact on Indonesia’s economic growth. But Trump’s emergence in the US presidency produces positive impact in the short-run. Oil price fluctuation as the latest shock in the global context has positive significant impact on Indonesia’s economic growth. We consider these results as ways to find breakthrough in understanding of changing policies from developed countries; that not all of them will contribute to negative matters. The conjecture, hunch, and any speculation must be postponed due to lack of convincing proofs.

Copyrights © 2018






Journal Info

Abbrev

edaj

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Focus and Scope Economic Development Analysis Journal is a scientific journal who published by Department of Economic Development, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia. this journal published four times per year on February, May, August, and November and start publishing ...