Jurnal Tekinkom (Teknik Informasi dan Komputer)
Vol 7 No 1 (2024)

PREDIKSI PENJUALAN OBAT PADA RUMAH SAKIT MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EKSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Winda Yoceva Pane (Universitas Prima Indonesia)
Nathanael Chrisman Laurentio Pardede (Universitas Prima Indonesia)
Rikky Martua Hasudungan Simaremare (Universitas Prima Indonesia)
Evta Indra (Universitas Prima Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jun 2024

Abstract

Royal Prima Hospital faces challenges in managing its drug inventory. Each month, the available quantity of drugs remains the same without considering the actual needs, based only on the amount of drugs sold. As a result, there is often an excess of drug stock, leading to reduced shelf life, lower drug prices, and unsatisfactory patient service. This situation is certainly detrimental to the hospital. To help hospital management reduce errors in forecasting drug sales, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method with an alpha of 0.6 was applied, as the sales data show a trend. This method provides a solution that can be used to predict the number of drugs that will be sold in both the short and long term with a high level of accuracy. The forecasting results produced a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 791.64, a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 17,887,289,511.31, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.78%. Thus, hospital management can manage drug inventory more efficiently and reduce wastage. This study offers significant benefits by providing a more accurate approach to forecasting drug sales.

Copyrights © 2024






Journal Info

Abbrev

Tekinkom

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Jurnal TEKINKOM merupakan jurnal yang dimaksudkan sebagai media terbitan kajian ilmiah hasil penelitian, pemikiran dan kajian analisis-kritis mengenai isu Ilmu - ilmu komputer dan sistem informasi, seperti : Pemrograman Jaringan, Jaringan Komputer, Teknik Komputer, Ilmu Komputer/Informatika, Sistem ...