International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for National Defense
Vol 2, No 1 (2024): International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for Natio

Times series data analysis: The Holt-Winters model for rainfall prediction In West Java

Hendri, Eko Primadi (Unknown)
Fadhlia, Sarah (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Mar 2024

Abstract

Time series data analysis is used to analyze data that considers time and data characteristics to predict future events. One of the time series data is rainfall data. Rainfall data has a seasonal pattern because there is a pattern that repeats itself over a certain period. Data analysis that considers the characteristics of seasonal patterns is the Holt-Winters method. The Holt-Winters model is divided into two, namely additive and multiplicative models. This research aims to compare the Holt-Winters additive and multiplicative methods to see the accuracy in predicting rainfall data in West Java. The additive model has level parameter I±=0,435, trend parameter I²=0, seasonal parameter I³=1, and RMSE value 140,174. The multiplicative model has level parameter I±=0,936, trend parameter I²=0, seasonal parameter I³=0,247, and RMSE value 150,020. The additive model has a smaller RMSE value so it can predict future rainfall with greater accuracy.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JAS-ND

Publisher

Subject

Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Mathematics Physics

Description

International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for National Defense (App.Sci.Def) [e-ISSN: 2985-9352, p_ISSN: 2986-0776] is a journal published by the Foundation of Advanced Education. International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences and Technology for National Defense ...