Hybrid Holt Winter-Prophet method to forecast the num-ber of foreign tourist arrivals through Bali's Ngurah Rai Airport

Damaliana, Aviolla Terza
Hindrayani , Kartika Maulida
Fahrudin, Tresna Maulana

International Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Analytics (IJDASEA)
Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): International Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Analytics Vol 3, No 2,

The Indonesian is an archipelago rich in culture and natural resources. The Government of Indonesia utilizes this wealth by maximizing the tourism potential to earn sizeable foreign exchange. As a major destination, the Indonesian government needs a strategy to ensure foreign tourists continue to increase in terms of health, cleanliness, a sustainable environment and infrastructure. When we can forecast the number of foreign tourists, it is hoped that the government can establish appropriate policies to develop tourism. Based on this, an appropriate forecasting method is needed. This study will use a hybrid model with the Holt-Winter and the Prophet method. The data used is the number of foreign tourists to Bali through Ngurah Rai Airport from January 2009 to December 2019. This study will use stages based on the OSEMN Framework. These stages are Obtain, Scrub, Explore, Model, and Interpret. The result of this study is that the MAPE value for the Hybrid Method is 2.5880%. This result means the Hybrid Holt Winter-Prophet is better than the Holt Winter Method