Peramalan Jumlah Kasus Baru Covid-19 di Kota Malang: Kajian dengan Analisis Time Series Metode Exponential Smoothing

Dinana Izzatul Ulya (Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Population Studies, and Health Promotion, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia)
Mahmudah (Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Population Studies, and Health Promotion, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia)
Hari Basuki Notobroto (Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Population Studies, and Health Promotion, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia)

Media Gizi Kesmas
Vol 13 No 1 (2024): MEDIA GIZI KESMAS (JUNE 2024)

Background: COVID-19 is a disease caused by the coronavirus and causes the main symptoms in the form of respiratory problems. The first case of COVID-19 in Indonesia occurred in March 2020. Forecasting COVID-19 cases is important to determine the right strategy for dealing with wider transmission of COVID-19. Time series analysis is a statistical analysis that can make very accurate forecasts, by considering previous data patterns. The Exponential Smoothing Method is one of the methods developed in time series analysis. Objectives: This research aims to forecast COVID-19 cases in Malang City. Methods: This research was conducted at the Malang City Health Service by taking secondary data, namely monthly data on the number of COVID-19 cases from March 2020 to August 2022. Results: Based on the research results, it shows that the number of new cases obtained in September - December 2022 was 856. Single Exponential Smoothing Mode; generated in a mathematical model is Lt = (0,0177)Yt + (0,9823)Lt-1. Conclusions: A study of the number of new COVID-19 cases in Malang City shows fluctuations from 2020-2022. The Single Exponential Smoothing method is the appropriate method for forecasting this research.