Analisis Keberlakuan Efek Kurva J pada Hubungan Bilateral Indonesia-ASEAN 5: 2010.1-2021.4

Muntaz Ndaru Apsari (Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang)
Fransiscus Xaverius Sugiyanto (Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang)

Diponegoro Journal of Economics
Vol 12, No 3 (2023)

This study was conducted to examine the J-curve effect in the bilateral relationship between Indonesia and the ASEAN-5 countries, as well as to understand how the AFTA and MEA programs related to economic openness influence the formation of the J-curve in this bilateral relationship. The variables used in this research are bilateral net exports between Indonesia and the ASEAN-5, bilateral real exchange rates, and the degree of bilateral economic openness between Indonesia and the ASEAN-5. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it indicates that the bilateral relationship between Indonesia and the ASEAN-5 during the period from Q1 2010 to Q4 2021 does not confirm the existence of the J-curve effect, and the degree of economic openness significantly influences bilateral net exports in the Indonesia-Thailand and Indonesia-Malaysia relationships. The elasticity of the real exchange rate and the degree of economic openness with respect to net exports is related to the existence and formation of the J-curve.