CAUSALITY ANALYSIS BETWEEN INFLATION, JUB, SBIS, PUAS AND SBSN USING COINTEGRATION AND GRANGER CAUSALITY APPROACH

Zainal Arifin Siregar (Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara)
M. Ridwan (Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara)
Maryam Batubara (Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara)

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Pajak
Vol 23, No 2 (2023): JAP : Vol. 23, No. 2, Agustus 2022 - Januari 2023

Inflation , the Money Supply (JUB) has been widely discussed and researched by previous researchers, the results from previous studies indicate a gap from the results of each research, in this study the researchers added the variable Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS) , Sharia Interbank Money Market (PUAS) and State Sharia Securities (SBSN) as sharia monetary policy which is also related to the variables of Inflation and the Money Supply (JUB) . The purpose of this study is to determine the long and short-term relationship between variables as well as to determine the direction of the relationship between variables. This research is a quantitative study, using secondary data based on monthly data from 2015 to 2020. The analysis used in this study uses cointegration analysis (long-term relationship) and Granger causality (direction of relationship between variables). The results of this study indicate that in the long term inflation has a positive and significant effect on the JUB variable and a negative and significant effect on the SBIS and SBSN variables while the PUAS variable has an insignificant effect. In the short term, inflation in the previous period had a negative and significant effect on current inflation, SBIS and SBSN while JUB and PUAS had an insignificant and insignificant effect. The previous JUB had a negative and significant effect on the current JUB, SBIS and SBSN variables, while the inflation variable had a positive and significant effect, while the PUAS variable had an insignificant effect. PUAS in the previous period had a negative and significant effect on the current PUAS and SBSN variables, while the Inflation, JUB and SBIS variables had no significant effect. The previous period SBIS had a negative and significant effect on the inflation and JUB variables, while the PUAS, current SBIS and SBSN variables had no significant effect. The previous period SBSN had a negative and significant effect on the inflation variable, current JUB and SBSN, while the PUAS and SBIS variables had no significant effect. In the Granger causality test there is a unidirectional relationship between SBIS and inflation, there is a unidirectional relationship between inflation and SBSN, there is a unidirectional relationship between JUB and PUAS, there is a unidirectional relationship between JUB and SBSN, PUAS and SBIS have a two-way relationship, SBSN has a unidirectional relationship with PUAS and SBSN have a unidirectional relationship with SBIS.