Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Vol 2 No 1 (2024): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

The Non-Seasonal Holt-Winters Method for Forecasting Stock Price Returns of Companies Affected by BDS Action

Qur'ani, Anggun Yuliarum (Unknown)
Widyaningrum, Chandra Sari (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
05 Feb 2024

Abstract

The non-seasonal Holt-Winters method is one of the methods of smoothing theory. This method can be implemented on time series data that does not have a seasonal component. In this study, this method is used to forecast the stock price returns of companies affected by the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) action. Forecasting gets very good results that can be seen from the MAPE value of modeling the six stocks affiliated with Israel that continue to carry out Zionism against Palestine is not more than 10%. This method can also accommodate the limitations of existing data while still obtaining good forecasting results. In addition, the use of several transformations of stock price returns in this case is very useful in modeling to obtain appropriate error assumptions. The forecasting results of the model formed as a whole follow the trend in the stock price of each company. To produce good forecasting results using this method, it is recommended to do forecasting in the short term. The forecasting results show that of the six company stocks, almost all of them experienced a decrease in stock price returns. Only one stock of PT Map Boga Adiperkasa Tbk has increased. This also illustrates that the BDS action influences on these companies.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

MJMS

Publisher

Subject

Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering

Description

The journal contains scientific articles covering topics such as mathematical theory, statistical methods, the application of mathematics in various disciplines, and statistical data analysis. The primary objective of this journal is to promote a better understanding of mathematical and statistical ...