The Forecasting Result Study of the Poverty Line and Number of Poor Population in DIY using DES and ARIMA

Shazia Ayesha Azzahra (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Indonesia)
Wiranti Nugrah Andini (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Indonesia)
Achmad Fauzan (Universitas Islam Indonesia)
Irwan Sutisna (Central Bureau of Statistics, Yogyakarta)

JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI
Vol. 21 No. 2 (2025): JANUARY 2025

The poverty rate in DIY, based on BPS data, stands at 11.04%, which remains above the national average of 9.36%. This study aims to predict poverty patterns in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) using DES and ARIMA methods. The data utilized in this research is sourced from BPS, focusing on poverty line data and the number of impoverished individuals. The DES model is employed to estimate the increase in the poverty line, demonstrating good accuracy with a MAPE value of 2.968%. Meanwhile, the ARIMA(0,2,1) model is applied to forecast a reduction in the number of impoverished individuals, yielding a MAPE of 3.543% through 2028. The findings of this study indicate that government policies have had a positive impact on reducing poverty, although challenges remain. The results of this analysis are expected to guide policymakers in crafting more effective and targeted poverty alleviation strategies in the DIY region. These findings suggest that government policies have had a positive impact on reducing poverty, despite ongoing challenges.