Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Vol 12, No 1 (2024): Jurnal Statistika Universitass Muhammadiyah Semarang

STOCK PRICE FORECASTING OF PT. BANK CENTRAL ASIA USING HYBRID AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE-NEURAL NETWORK (ARIMA-NN) METHOD

Azizah, Apipah Nur (Unknown)
Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman (Unknown)
Arum, Prizka Rismawati (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Jul 2024

Abstract

PT. Bank Central Asia is a private company that has superior shares in the Lq45 category but has share prices that fluctuate every period. So forecasting is needed to predict stock prices in the next period. These fluctuations can cause linear and nonlinear relationships in historical stock price data. This research uses the Hybrid ARIMA-NN approach, where the ARIMA model is able to overcome data non-stationarity while the Neural Network is used to capture nonlinear patterns that cannot be explained by the ARIMA model by using the residuals as NN input, the hybrid model can increase forecasting accuracy. The data used is weekly data on closing stock prices for the period January 2019 to June 2024. Prediction measurements use Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The research results show that forecasting with Hybrid ARIMA(2,1,2)-NN(1-5-1) obtained a MAPE value of 3.99% smaller than the ARIMA(2,1,2) a MAPE value of 4.13%, that the accuracy of the forecasting model is good.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

statistik

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

Description

Focus and Scope a. Statistika Teori, Statistika Komputasi, Statistika terapan b. Matematika Teori dan Aplikasi c. Design of ...