Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer)
Vol. 13 No. 3 (2024): NOVEMBER

Prediction of Monthly Rainfall with Using Monte Carlo Simulation in the Medan City Area

Arini, Arini (Unknown)
Cipta, Hendra (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Nov 2024

Abstract

The climate in Indonesia, which is a tropical region, is always uncertain and makes it difficult to predict weather conditions. Weather conditions can be influenced by rainfall, air temperature, wind speed, air humidity and light radiation intensity. Rainfall is relatively high and varies throughout the year, the average monthly rainfall is around 150-300 mm in the rainy season and 50-100 mm in the dry season. There are several characteristics of rainfall, namely convective rain, frontal rain and orographic rain. For this reason, a method is needed that can solve problems in predicting monthly rainfall properties using the Monte Carlo simulation method. From this study, the results of the prediction of rainfall properties were obtained with 36 data from 2021 to 2024 which had a MAPE test result of 12.28%. The test results came from the average calculation carried out on the Monte Carlo method prediction with 5 variables.

Copyrights © 2024






Journal Info

Abbrev

sisfokom

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

Description

Jurnal Sisfokom merupakan singkatan dari Jurnal Sistem Informasi dan Komputer. Jurnal ini merupakan kolaborasi antara sivitas akademika STMIK Atma Luhur dengan perguruan tinggi maupun universitas di Indonesia. Jurnal ini berisi artikel ilmiah dari peneliti, akademisi, serta para pemerhati TI. Jurnal ...