Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024

Peramalan Tinggi Muka Air Menggunakan Long-Short Term Memory dengan Mekanisme Multi-Head Attention

Atmaja, Anugerah Surya (Unknown)
Muzakki, Naufal Fadli (Unknown)
Oktavian, Zulfaa Dwi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
08 Nov 2024

Abstract

This study aims to predict the Ciliwung River water level in DKI Jakarta using an Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model with a multi-head attention mechanism. Increasing flood frequency due to climate change necessitates an effective early warning system. Utilizing historical water level data and related meteorological variables, the LSTM model with multi-head attention demonstrated superior performance, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) of 31.74, 3.3%, and 3.3%, respectively. Predictions for the next 72 hours indicate safe water levels between 450 cm and 500 cm, suggesting no flooding. In conclusion, the LSTM model with multi-head attention enhances water level forecasting accuracy and serves as a useful flood risk mitigation tool in Jakarta. This research significantly contributes to the development of flood early warning systems and the application of machine learning in disaster mitigation.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

semnasoffstat

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official ...