Modeling Vector Error Correction with Exogeneous (VECMX) Variable for Analyzing Nonstationary Variable Energy Used and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Usman, Mustofa
Wamiliana
Russel, Edwin
Kurniasari, Dian
Widiarti
Elfaki, Faiz A.M

Science and Technology Indonesia
Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025): January

Analysis of energy used, GDP and population has been carried out in many countries and has become a topic of interest for many researchers and governments. This is because energy used is an important factor for society and industry in a country. In this study, the modeling of the relationship between energy used, GDP and population as an exogenous variable for the cases of Indonesia from 1967-2023 will be discussed. The energy used and GDP data are nonstationary with order one, I(1), and there is cointegration between energy used and GDP. Therefore, the model which will be used is the Vector Error Correction Model with Exogenous variable (VECMX) with population as the exogenous variable. From the results of analysis, the best model is VECMX(3,1) with cointegration rank R=1. Based on this model, the pattern of the relationship among the three variables, Granger-causality between energy used and GDP, exogenous impact on energy used and GDP, and forecasting for the next 10 years will be discussed.