Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Vol. 8 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya

THE APPLICATION OF THE ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) METHOD FOR FORECASTING THE SOUTHERN OSCILATION INDEX (SOI)

Fathia Syahla Az Zahra (Unknown)
Bagus Sumargo (Unknown)
Siregar, Dania (Unknown)
Auria Yusrin Fathya (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Dec 2024

Abstract

Indonesia's seasons are influenced by global phenomena such as ENSO. This phenomenon affects rainfall intensity in Indonesia through its two main phases: El Nino and La Nina. One method to detect these events is by analyzing the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A highly accurate SOI forecasting model is critical for both short-term and long-term development planning, particularly in anticipating future extreme seasons. One of the methods used for forecasting is the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This study aims to develop an ANN model capable of predicting the SOI index. Based on forecasting using training data, the optimal model architecture identified is 12-7-1, which achieved the smallest MSE value of 0.0095 and a MAPE of 17.6851. With an error rate below 20%, the 12-7-1 architecture demonstrates strong forecasting capabilities. The study forecasts the SOI index for the next 12 months, indicating a trend from negative values at the beginning of the year to more positive values toward the year's end.

Copyrights © 2024






Journal Info

Abbrev

statistika

Publisher

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences Other

Description

Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya JSA is dedicated to all statisticians who wants to publishing their articles about statistics and its application. The coverage of JSA includes every subject that using or related to ...