UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

Peramalan Harga Bawang Merah di Kota Padang Menggunakan Metode SARIMA

Larissa, Dwika (Unknown)
Fitri, Fadhilah (Unknown)
Dina Fitria (Unknown)

Article Info

Publish Date
28 Feb 2025

Abstract

The fluctuation of shallot prices in Padang City has become a major concern for consumers, producers, and the government. This study applies the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method to forecast shallot prices from January 2020 to August 2024, using monthly time-series data. The analysis identifies ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 as the optimal model for predicting shallot prices in Padang City, effectively capturing seasonal and non-seasonal patterns. Predictions for the period from September 2024 to August 2025 indicate a price increase trend, peaking in May 2025 before declining. The findings are expected to serve as a reference for planning production, distribution, and price control of shallots.

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Journal Info
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Website

Abbrev

ujsds

Publisher

Universitas Negeri Padang

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its ...