ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi

Nigerian Population Growth Modelling and Forecasting using Univariate Time series model

Taiwo, Abass Ishola (Unknown)
Titilola, A A (Unknown)
Olatayo, Timothy Olabisi (Unknown)
Lasisi, Taiwo Abideen (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
17 Feb 2025

Abstract

The Nigerian population is growing rapidly, and this poses significant challenge to human existence. To have an insight, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to model and predict population growth. The results showed a yearly population mean of 99,611,692 with a standard deviation of 53,188,740. After estimation, the ARIMA(3,2,1) model was chosen for having lowest Akaike and Schwarz information criterion with the adequacy of the model attained using the Ljung-Box Statistic Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the residuals. Coefficient and adjusted coefficient of determinations showed the model has a strong predictive accuracy, with the forecast indicating a continuous population growth increase of over 5 million annually. Conclusively, Nigerian government must plan how to curtail this explosive growth expected at over 418 million by 2050.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ESTIMASI

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application, is a journal published by the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University. ESTIMASI is a peer – reviewed journal with the online submission system for the dissemination of statistics and its ...