Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research
Vol. 10 No. 1 (2024): June

Bootstrap-after-bootstrap for autoregressive models: an application to Indonesian value of export oil and gas

Mahmudah, Umi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 Jul 2024

Abstract

This research focuses on predicting the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia, employing a hybrid methodology that combines autoregressive models and a bootstrap approach. Specifically, this research applies the bootstrap-after-bootstrap approach to showcase its effectiveness in improving the accuracy of parameter estimates. Analysis results indicate that the autoregressive model with an order of p=2 minimizes the AIC, BIC, and HQ values, yielding AIC=9.833775, BIC=10.03125, and HQ=9.883440, respectively. Consequently, the AR(2) model emerges as the optimal choice for predicting Indonesia's export value of oil and gas. This research utilizes varying numbers of bootstrap replications (B=100, 250, 500, 1000, and 10000) to assess the impact on prediction intervals. Prediction intervals exhibit less smoothness for B=100 and B=250, whereas B=500 and B=1000 result in a considerably smoother pattern. The highest level of smoothness is achieved for B=10000. The findings underscore that bootstrap-after-bootstrap prediction intervals provide the most accurate and conservative assessment of future uncertainty. Moreover, predictive analysis for the upcoming five periods indicates a projected decline in the export value of oil and gas in Indonesia. Overall, this research demonstrates the efficacy of the bootstrap-after-bootstrap approach in enhancing the precision of predictions and providing robust insights into future uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's oil and gas export market.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JNSMR

Publisher

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics

Description

Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research, an international journal, provides a forum for publishing the original research articles, review articles from contributors, and the novel technology news related to natural sciences and mathematics research. Scientific articles dealing with ...