Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Vol 6 No 1 (2022)

Comparison of The SARIMA Model and Intervention in Forecasting The Number of Domestic Passengers at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport

Anistia Iswari (Department of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia)
Yenni Angraini (Department of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia)
Mohammad Masjkur (Department of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2022

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a massive effect on the air transportation sector. Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (Soetta) skilled a lower variety of passengers because of the Covid-19 pandemic, even though Soetta Airport persisted to perform normally. Forecasting the number of passengers needs to be done by the airport to decide the proper policy. Therefore, the airport wishes to estimate the range of passengers to determine the right coverage and prepare the facilities provided if there may be a boom withinside the range of passengers throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Forecasting the number of domestic passengers at Soetta Airport on this examination makes use of the SARIMA model and intervention. This examination compares the SARIMA model and the intervention in forecasting the number of domestic passengers at Soetta Airport. The effects confirmed that the best SARIMA model became ARIMA ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)12 with MAPE and RMSE of 55,18% and 588887.4, respectively. The best intervention model  became ARIMA0,1,1) (1,0,0)12 b = 0, s = 5, r = 1  with MAPE of 35,25% and RMSE of 238563,4. The MAPE and RMSE values acquired suggest that the intervention model is better than the SARIMA model in forecasting the number of domestic passengers at Soetta Airport throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijsa

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Mathematics Other

Description

Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications (eISSN:2599-0802) (formerly named Forum Statistika dan Komputasi), established since 2017, publishes scientific papers in the area of statistical science and the applications. The published papers should be research papers with, but not limited ...