International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology
Vol. 1 No. 1 (2024): IJCOMIT Vol 1 No 1

VEHICLE VOLUME FORECASTING SYSTEM ON TOLL ROADS USING DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE AND DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS: CASE STUDY AT JASAMARGA PANDAAN TOLL ROAD

Mesach Habel Wiyono Pranataningtyas (Informatics Engineering, Malang National Institute of Technology)
Yosep Agus Pranoto (Informatics Engineering, Malang National Institute of Technology)
Deddy Rudhistiar (Informatics Engineering, Malang National Institute of Technology)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Jan 2024

Abstract

Forecasting or forecasting has been used as one of the considerations, especially in the field of business and economics. This is done so that company losses can be minimized and company profits can be maximized. Therefore we need a system that can make it easier to get accurate forecasting results. However, in real cases procurement of IT consultants requires quite expensive costs. So the research provides a solution to design a website-based vehicle volume forecasting system on toll roads conducted at PT. Jasamarga Pandaan Tol. This system is expected to facilitate the Traffic Collection team in projecting the volume of vehicles on toll roads in the future. The method used in forecasting vehicle volume is the Double Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing methods. The Double Moving Average method is a time series method where the results of this method are influenced by the order or time period. The Exponential Smoothing method is a time series method where the results of this method are influenced by the alpha parameter. The results of these two methods will be compared based on the accuracy of the data so that the user can easily see the results of forecasting vehicle volume in the future. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is the absolute (absolute) average percentage error. Definition of Mean Absolute Percentage Error is a statistical measurement of the accuracy of estimates (predictions) in forecasting methods. The results of the accuracy of applying the Double Moving Average method give an average MAPE value of 30,124% and the Double Exponential Smoothing method gives an average MAPE value of 5,368%.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJCOMIT

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

IJCOMIT is a journal of Computer Science and Informatics Technology published by the Computer Science Department, Malang National Institute of Technology, Indonesia, this journal aims to accommodate research articles in the field of Computer Science and Informatics which include programming, ...