Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya

APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA MODEL IN FORECASTING ETHEREUM PRICES

Mangiwa, Romario Desouza Daniel (Unknown)
Siregar, Revina (Unknown)
Sari, Seli Delima (Unknown)
Agustina, Neli (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Apr 2025

Abstract

Ethereum is one of the leading cryptocurrencies utilizing blockchain technology for peer-to-peer financial transactions. This study aims to forecast Ethereum's price using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)model. Historical price data from January 1, 2023, to January 15, 2025, covering 534 periods, was analyzed. The ARIMA (0,1,9) model was selected based on AIC, SC, and Adjusted R-squared criteria, with forecast evaluation showing a Mean Absolute PercentageError (MAPE) of 15.01% and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 649.702. Forecast results indicate an upward trend in Ethereum's price over the next 30 periods, with fluctuations being less pronounced compared to historical data. The study concludes that ARIMA provides reasonably accurate short-term predictions, although forecasting errors increase with longer prediction periods. These findings can serve as a reference for investors in developing short-term investment strategies for Ethereum.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

parameter

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya is an open access journal (e-journal) published since April 2022. Parameteris published by Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Pattimura. Parameterpublished scientific articles on various aspects related to ...