JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer)
Vol 12, No 2 (2025): April 2025

Implementasi Time Series Forecasting dengan Algoritma LSTM untuk Pemantauan dan Prediksi Produktivitas Kelapa Sawit Berdasarkan Hasil Panen

Ardian Pramana Putra (Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Medan)
Aninda Muliani Harahap (Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Medan)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Apr 2025

Abstract

Palm oil productivity is a key factor in maintaining the stability and sustainability of Indonesia's agribusiness industry. The fluctuation in yield at PTPN IV Kebun Bah Birung Ulu, which increased from 43,308 tons in 2020 to 44,028 tons in 2022 and then decreased to 34,643 tons in 2024, highlights the need for a more accurate monitoring system. These fluctuations are influenced by weather, fertilizer usage, plant infections, and plant age. Manual record-keeping without digital system support also increases the risk of errors and complicates production monitoring. This study aims to develop a web-based palm oil productivity prediction system using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. Five years of daily historical data, including plant age, fertilizer usage, rainfall, infection rates, and harvest results per afdeling, were used as model input. The research process includes data collection, preprocessing with Min-Max normalization, data splitting into 80% training and 20% testing, and training the LSTM model with two LSTM layers, two dropout layers, and one Dense layer. Model evaluation using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) shows that the model can predict productivity with good accuracy, with the best RMSE for each target variable achieved at different epochs. The 2025 prediction results indicate a stable or declining trend influenced by plant age, fertilizer application, rainfall, and infection rates. The developed web-based system features real-time monitoring and data visualization, providing a more efficient solution for production management and strategic decision-making in palm oil plantations.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jurikom

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer) membahas ilmu dibidang Informatika, Sistem Informasi, Manajemen Informatika, DSS, AI, ES, Jaringan, sebagai wadah dalam menuangkan hasil penelitian baik secara konseptual maupun teknis yang berkaitan dengan Teknologi Informatika dan Komputer. Topik utama yang ...