<![CDATA[Rapid urbanization in Surakarta, Central Java, has transformed land cover, reducing water absorption capacity and increasing flood frequency. While global studies link land cover changes to flood risks, localized analyses in Surakarta remain scarce. This study aims to (1) map land cover changes (2019–2023) using Sentinel-2A imagery, (2) quantify their impact on runoff coefficients and flood discharge, and (3) evaluate classification accuracy against government data. Land cover was classified via MLC (97% accuracy) and validated against BPS and Ministry of Environment and Forestry data. Hydrological modeling combined HSS Gama I and SCS methods in HEC-HMS, with rainfall data analyzed using Thiessen polygons and Gumbel distribution. Urbanization increased the runoff coefficient by 23.12%, raising flood discharge by 23.47% (Gajah Putih) and 23.33% (Pepe Hulu). Sentinel-2A outperformed government data (79% accuracy) in land cover mapping. The findings underscore the urgency of integrating high-accuracy remote sensing into urban planning. Future research should explore machine learning for real-time flood prediction and policy-driven mitigation strategies.]]>
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