Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024)

Forecasting Export Value of Bengkulu Province Through Pulau Baai Harbour with ARIMA, ANN, and Hybrid ARIMA-ANN Approach

Lestari, Wina Ayu (Unknown)
Nugroho, Sigit (Unknown)
Widodo, Fanani Haryo Widodo (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Apr 2025

Abstract

Forecasting is a process of predicting future events based on past event data. One of the time series models that can be used for forecasting is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The advantages of ARIMA are in the accuracy and flexibility of its forecasting in representing several different types of time series, but the main limitation is the linear form of the model which causes ARIMA to be unable to capture non-linear patterns in the data. An alternative model for time series modeling is Artificial Neuron Network (ANN). ANN can overcome the weaknesses of ARIMA, but cannot handle linear and nonlinear patterns of the data simultaneously. As an effort to improve forecasting accuracy, Hybrid ARIMA-ANN is carried out by taking advantage of the supremacy of ARIMA and ANN. This study aims to obtain the best model for forecasting the export value of Bengkulu Province, a model generated by the time series data of export values issued by Pulau Baai Harbour from January 2014 to June 2022. The result shows that the best model for predicting the export value of Bengkulu Province is the ARIMA-ANN hybrid model with MAAPE of 0.5289 and MASE of 0.7664.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jsds

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Other

Description

Established in 2022, Journal of Statistics and Data Science (JSDS) publishes scientific papers in the fields of statistics, data science, and its applications. Published papers should be research-based papers on the following topics: experimental design and analysis, survey methods and analysis, ...