Science in Information Technology Letters
Vol 6, No 1 (2025): May 2025

Machine learning-based residential load demand forecasting: Evaluating ELM, XGBoost, RF, and SVM for enhanced energy system and sustainability

Abdalla, Modawy Adam Ali (Unknown)
Ishaga, Ahmed Mohamed (Unknown)
Osman, Hassan Ahmed (Unknown)
Elhindi, Mohamed (Unknown)
Ibrahim, Nasreldin (Unknown)
Snani, Aissa (Unknown)
Hamid, Gomaa Haroun Ali (Unknown)
Hammad, Abdallah (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
12 May 2025

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of electrical power load is essential for properly planning, operating, and integrating energy systems to accommodate renewables and achieve environmental sustainability. Therefore, this study introduces different machine learning (ML) methods, including support vector machines (SVM), random forests (RF), extreme learning machines (ELM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to predict hourly electricity demand using electricity consumption and temperature data for train and test ML models. The data is processed by autocorrelation function (ACF) and cross-correlation function (CCF) to determine the appropriate lag time for the inputs. Furthermore, ML model accuracy is assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Results show that the ELM model achieved the highest R² in both summer (0.971) and winter (0.868), outperforming the other models in accuracy R² and error reduction (MAE and RMSE). ELM also more effectively captured load fluctuations. The result of this research has applications for load demand forecasting in the proper planning and operation of the residential grid. The results help estimate load demand and provide useful guidance for residential grid planning and management by determining the best techniques for precisely estimating load demand and identifying domestic energy consumption patterns

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Journal Info

Abbrev

sitech

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Science in Information Technology Letters (SITech) aims to keep abreast of the current development and innovation in the area of Science in Information Technology as well as providing an engaging platform for scientists and engineers throughout the world to share research results in related ...