Jurnal Riset Informatika
Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Maret 2025

Prediction Of Flight Delays Using Feature Engineering, Catboost, And Bayesian Optimization To Improve Model Performance

Maulana, Ilham (Unknown)
Ernawati, Siti (Unknown)
Wati, Risa (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Mar 2025

Abstract

Flight delays have become a major issue in the aviation industry, impacting operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. This study proposes a CatBoostClassifier-based approach combined with Feature Engineering, Bayesian Optimization, and Random Over Sampling techniques to improve the accuracy of flight delay predictions. Based on model evaluation results, the use of Feature Engineering and Bayesian Optimization enhances performance compared to the baseline CatBoost model. The CatBoost+FE+Bayes combination achieves an accuracy of 83.32%, higher than the unmodified CatBoost model, which only reaches 82.95%. However, applying the Random Over Sampling technique in the CatBoost+FE+Bayes+ROS combination decreases model performance, reducing accuracy to 81.44%. Regarding other metrics, the CatBoost+FE+Bayes model demonstrates the highest F1-score of 0.62, indicating a balance between precision and recall. Additionally, the Area Under Curve (AUC) analysis reveals that CatBoost+FE+Bayes has the highest AUC value of 0.7793, followed by CatBoost+FE at 0.7768, and the unmodified CatBoost model at 0.7643. Meanwhile, the application of ROS leads to a decrease in AUC value to 0.6787. These findings suggest that utilizing Feature Engineering and Bayesian Optimization significantly enhances flight delay predictions. However, resampling techniques such as ROS do not always positively impact the tested model and can even degrade classification performance. The objective of this research is to develop a more accurate flight delay prediction model through the application of appropriate optimization techniques. The resulting model is expected to improve prediction quality and benefit the aviation industry by optimizing operational efficiency and minimizing the negative impact of delays on passengers.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jri

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Jurnal Riset Informatika, merupakan Jurnal yang diterbitkan oleh Kresnamedia Publisher. Jurnal Riset Informatika, berawal diperuntukan menampung paper-paper ilmiah yang dibuat oleh peneliti dan dosen-dosen program studi Sistem Informasi dan Teknik ...