Analisis Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Defisit Anggaran, Neraca Perdagangan, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia dan Thailand

Fadia Gusniarti
Marselina
Arif Darmawan

JEBD
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Juli - September

This study aims to analyze the effects of government expenditure, budget deficit, trade balance, and exchange rate on external debt in Indonesia and Thailand. The method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) with annual time series data from 1994 to 2023. The results show that in Indonesia, the trade balance has a significant negative effect on external debt in the short term, while government expenditure, budget deficit, and exchange rate have no significant effect. Meanwhile, in Thailand, the budget deficit has a significant positive effect, the trade balance has a significant negative effect, and the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on external debt. These findings imply that fiscal policy and external sector conditions play an important role in the dynamics of external debt in both countries.