Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence
Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence, Article Research November 2025

Stock Price Prediction Using the ETSFormer Model Case Study: PTBA

Atqiya, Muhammad Azka (Unknown)
Riza, Lala Septem (Unknown)
Anisyah, Ani (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
11 Aug 2025

Abstract

The capital market in Indonesia is currently experiencing very rapid development. This growth is significantly evidenced by the increasing number of investors, especially from the millennial and Gen Z demographics. However, this growing investor base also faces a major challenge: high stock price volatility. These fluctuations are triggered by various factors, ranging from domestic economic policies and global geopolitical conditions to rapidly changing market sentiment. This research aims to build a stock price prediction model for PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) using the ETSFormer architecture, a modern Transformer-based method designed for time-series data. The historical stock price data used in this study covers a five-year period from 2020 to 2025. To ensure optimal model performance, the best model was identified using the Grid Search technique to find the most effective combination of hyperparameters. The results of this study determined that the best model was achieved with the hyperparameters model dimension = 16, batch size = 16, and a learning rate = 0.01, which yielded a validation loss of 0.0074. In the evaluation phase, this model demonstrated solid performance with a MAPE score of 3.28%, an MAE of 86.76, and an RMSE of 117.2. Although the resulting model is quite good at reading long-term trend directions, observations indicate limitations in capturing short-term price volatility. This implies that the model is more suitable for strategic trend analysis than for predicting daily fluctuations.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

brilliance

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Other

Description

Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence is The Scientific Journal. Brilliance is published twice in one year, namely in February, May and November. Brilliance aims to promote research in the field of Informatics Engineering which focuses on publishing quality papers about the latest ...