Sistemasi: Jurnal Sistem Informasi
Vol 14, No 6 (2025): Sistemasi: Jurnal Sistem Informasi

Graduation Prediction for Prospective University Students using Stacking Ensemble Learning

Swastikawati, Claudia (Unknown)
Utami, Ema (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Nov 2025

Abstract

Student graduation is an important indicator in accreditation and serves as part of quality management strategies in higher education. Therefore, early prediction of student graduation is necessary to improve the effectiveness of data-driven admission decision-making. Differences in student graduation rates are influenced by a combination of academic, demographic, economic, and family factors. This study applies the Stacking Ensemble Learning method by combining Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Support Vector Machine, with XGBoost serving as the meta-learner. The dataset used integrates student admission records and graduation status reports from the NeoFeeder PDDikti system, covering 16 academic and non-academic feature variables. The model was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and Area Under the Curve (AUC). The results show that the stacking ensemble model outperformed single models, achieving 82% accuracy, a weighted F1-score of 80%, and an AUC of 87.15% on the test data. These findings contribute both the selected feature set and the implementation of an ensemble model for building a machine learning–based prediction system, particularly in addressing data imbalance and improving classification accuracy.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

stmsi

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

Sistemasi adalah nama terbitan jurnal ilmiah dalam bidang ilmu sains komputer program studi Sistem Informasi Universitas Islam Indragiri, Tembilahan Riau. Jurnal Sistemasi Terbit 3x setahun yaitu bulan Januari, Mei dan September,Focus dan Scope Umum dari Sistemasi yaitu Bidang Sistem Informasi, ...