Perbandingan Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Air Bersih PT. Air Minum Giri Menang dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt dan Brown menggunakan Optimasi Algoritma Kuadratik

Pazira, Era
Aini, Qurratul
Zulhan Widya Baskara

IJASDS: Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science
Vol. 1 No. 1 (2024): November

Regional Water Supply Companies (PDAM) play a crucial role in ensuring the availability of clean and consumable water. This study aims to compare the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods—Brown’s one-parameter and Holt’s two-parameter—for forecasting the clean water production of PT. Air Minum Giri Menang (Perseroda), emphasizing parameter optimization using a quadratic algorithm. The algorithm efficiently determines the optimal smoothing parameters to minimize forecasting errors measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that Brown’s DES method, with a MAPE of 3.29%, outperforms Holt’s DES method, which has a MAPE of 3.96%. While both methods are highly accurate for forecasting (MAPE ≤ 10%), the quadratic algorithm optimization makes Brown’s DES method the preferred choice for planning clean water production for the January–June 2023 period.