Volatility and Risk Assessment of Blockchain Cryptocurrencies Using GARCH Modeling: An Analytical Study on Dogecoin, Polygon, and Solana

Alkhoze, Mona
Almasre, Miada

Journal of Digital Market and Digital Currency
Vol. 2 No. 4 (2025): Regular Issue December 2025

This study analyzed the volatility and risk profiles of three prominent blockchain-based cryptocurrencies—Dogecoin, Polygon, and Solana—using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Volatility, a key risk metric for cryptocurrencies, was modeled through the GARCH(1,1) framework, which effectively captured the time-varying nature of price fluctuations. The analysis revealed that Dogecoin exhibited the highest volatility and risk, primarily driven by its speculative market behavior and social media influence. Polygon and Solana, while also volatile, demonstrated more stability, with their risk profiles reflecting the technological advancements and broader use cases within their respective blockchain ecosystems. The study also incorporated Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) metrics to assess the potential downside risks for each cryptocurrency. Dogecoin had the highest potential for extreme losses, followed by Polygon and Solana. The GARCH model successfully identified the volatility persistence in these assets, showing that past market conditions heavily influenced future volatility. This research contributes to the literature on cryptocurrency volatility by applying the GARCH(1,1) model to analyze digital assets with varying market characteristics. The findings emphasize the need for robust risk management strategies tailored to the unique behaviors of individual cryptocurrencies. Limitations of the study included the use of historical data and the focus on only three cryptocurrencies, suggesting opportunities for future research. Potential areas for further study include the incorporation of additional variables, such as macroeconomic indicators, and the exploration of alternative volatility models, such as EGARCH or TGARCH, to better capture the complexities of cryptocurrency markets. These insights provide valuable guidance for investors, risk managers, and policymakers navigating the volatile and evolving landscape of blockchain-based digital assets.