JABM JOURNAL of ACCOUNTING - BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT
Vol 32 No 2 (2025): October

The Prediction of Market Index Price

Abdelhedi, Mouna (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Oct 2025

Abstract

This study undertakes the theory of stimulus organism response (SOR theory) to explain and predict investor emotion and investor behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic in France and Germany financial markets. In this paper, we apply the nonparametric volatility model, the vector autoregressive model, and the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous neural network model. Empirical results show a high level of jumps in investor emotion and investor behavior during the first wave of Covid-19. Moreover, we find the existence of emotional response to Covid-19, lockdown, and government support stimuli. Indeed, we find that Covid-19 stimuli enhance investor fear, while government support stimuli minimize the level of fear. Then, the investor emotion stimulates investor behavior, generating a behavioral response that confirms the SOR theory. However, we find that during the Covid-19 pandemic, market and bank stimuli present a lower effect on investor emotion compared with stimuli related to the Covid19 crisis. The Covid-19, lockdown, and government support stimuli efficiently predict investor emotion.

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Journal Info

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Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Other

Description

Journal of Accounting, Business and Management (JABM) provides a scientific discourse about accounting, business, and management both practically and conceptually. The published articles at this journal cover various topics from the result of particular conceptual analysis and critical evaluation to ...