Jurnal Teknik Informatika C.I.T. Medicom
Vol 16 No 4 (2024): September: Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)

Probabilistic Machine Learning Driven Decision Support System for Enhancing Policy Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Ekrem, Adskhan Reyhan (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Sep 2024

Abstract

This research examines the role of uncertainty modeling in enhancing the quality, reliability, and adaptability of policymaking. Traditional policy decisions often rely on fixed assumptions that fail to account for the inherent volatility of social, economic, and environmental systems. By integrating probabilistic techniques, scenario analysis, and sensitivity-based evaluation, the study demonstrates how policymakers can better anticipate variability in economic, social, and environmental outcomes. The findings indicate that uncertainty modeling not only improves predictive accuracy but also strengthens policy resilience by revealing hidden risks, alternative pathways, and the range of possible impacts under differing conditions. The research contributes a structured framework for incorporating uncertainty into policy design and evaluation, providing practical tools for evidence-based decision-making. In practice, the model enables policymakers to make more adaptive, transparent, and risk-aware decisions, ultimately transforming traditional deterministic approaches into dynamic strategies capable of responding effectively to complex and unpredictable real-world challenges.

Copyrights © 2024






Journal Info

Abbrev

JTI

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

The Jurnal Teknik Informatika C.I.T a scientific journal of Decision support sistem , expert system and artificial inteligens which includes scholarly writings on pure research and applied research in the field of information systems and information technology as well as a review-general review of ...